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NOT IN 2012 – NOT EVER

July 20, 2009

NotIn2012LOGO

When she debuted at the RNC Convention last year, she delivered her speech very well. What many people don’t know is that not one word was hers. The speech was written by one of the best speechwriters in the business, Matthew Scully – a writer for George W. Bush. Her ability to deliver the speech via teleprompter came from her experience as a local sportscaster. She rehearsed the speech for several days (with teleprompters), away from the media spotlight.

This was the only way the McCain Campaign was going to gain traction.

It worked until Sarah had to be Sarah:

After these interviews, media and entertainers had a field day:

Pundit World tells us “the Republican base really loves her.” What they are not saying is that this does not represent nearly enough votes to win the Republican nomination for President, much less the Presidency.

While  7 out of 10 Republicans say they would vote for Palin for President in 2012, only 1 out of 5 Americans identify themselves as Republicans.

122,394,724 voted in 2008.

Based on these figures, approximately 24,500,000 people consider themselves Republican. That translates into 17,200,000 votes for Sarah Palin in the 2012 election. Even if she split the independent vote (27% in 2008) with Obama – a highly unlikely scenario – she would add approximately 16,500,000 votes.

Based on her current popularity, Sarah Palin would get approximately 24% of the vote in the 2012 Presidential election.

These facts are not lost on level-headed Republicans. They know Palin can’t win. So do many others. If Obama’s first term is even slightly successful, no Republican can win in 2012.

Then again, that might be the very reason to nominate Palin.

Get her bid for President out of the way in 2012 (figuratively throw her to the wolves) so that a viable contender can run against what may very well be an open field of Democrats in 2016. (Joe Biden will be 74 years old on November 20, 2016.) If she waits until 2016, she would be going up against qualified candidates with the gravitas she’ll never have.

You can’t teach what Sarah Palin needs to learn.

I firmly believe she will say or do something that will completely eliminate her from even considering a Presidential bid – ever. Quitting her job as Alaska’s Governor mid-way through the first term with ethics charges flying is a very good indication of how she handles responsibility. Again, level-headed Republicans are aware.

Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for President.

Not in 2012.

Not ever.

Sincerely,

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www.MichaelKontras.com

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4 comments

  1. I was at that last clip! Tina Fey on Letterman. Very cool you chose that. And stop harshin’ my mellow dad – I want her to get the nomination SOOOOOOOOOOO BADDDDDDDDDDDD. 🙂


  2. HAHAHA!

    We all do! But let’s face it, she’ll be blown out of the saddle in the first debate with the other Republican candidates unless…

    …the MEDIA really wants her to run.

    🙂


  3. […] On “Meet the Press”, Sunday, October 4, 2009, in a discussion about who will be the Republican nominee in 2012, Mike Murphy (Republican Strategist and Campaign Manager for John McCain in 2000) said, “These radio guys can’t deliver a pizza, much less the nomination.” He also agreed with Steve Schmidt (Campaign Manager for McCain 2008) that Sarah Palin (Rush Limbaugh’s idea of a true conservative) will not be the nominee in 2012, and if by chance she did become the nominee, it would be catastrophic for the Republican Party. Where have you heard that before? […]


  4. […] quote back in July, from Not in 2012 – Not Ever, seems to have become reality. Sarah Palin’s book, “Going Rogue: An American Life,” has […]



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